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October 31, 2006

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I think your lack of agreement with him on that one point is due to a minor misunderstanding. He's NOT claiming that "as a financial advisor I can often foresee..." in order to claim that his foresight is due entirely to his status as a financial advisor. He's explaining how he gains information about the market thanks to his position as a financial advisor. He does that by watching how reluctant his (financial advisory) clients are to invest in given sectors and stocks.

He's not claiming that this is the only way to gain information about the market; he's just saying that it's a good way for him. His way obviously wouldn't work for anyone who's not a financial advisor, since we don't have financial advice clients :-). Talking to friends wouldn't be a bad idea, as long as you kept in mind that your friends probably aren't investing in the things they "blabber" about; putting your money where your mouth is (as a financial planner's client must) has a way of pulling out how you REALLY feel. It's a lot easier to TALK contrarian than it is to walk it. So expect your friends to give you a "false feel" for how willing they are to invest in contrarian ways.

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