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April 04, 2008


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Are you crazy!

This is usually good advice... but 2008 is different. We are in a major bull market and on the edge of a financial collapse. The financial news is getting louder for good reasons. This is the time to get out of dollar investments and move your money into foreign markets and gold.

As Peter Schiff has been suggesting for years.

The typical "stay invested for long-term growth" investor talk is BS. The Fed is debasing the currency. The dollar could drop another 50% over the next few years - cutting your stock values in half.

The best advice in 2008 is to stay alert - read as much financial information as you can and protect your investments.

lol... um, I'm not sure how to follow up here ;)

I've been guilty of some of this. During the big decline from 2000-2002 I waited until 2002 to rebalance my portfolio to a lower stock market exposure (65/35 down to 50/50). I paid the price for that when the market went back up.

Now we're at a 60/40 allocation in our retirement portfolio and we're staying put. We're down about 2% YTD. The reason I chose this allocation is research I read in Kiplinger's this allocation will produce most of the performance of higher allocations (80/20 or greater) with significantly less volitility. Plus, we're now only about 10-15 years from retirement; 10 years for my wife, 15 years for me.

I have no plans to change our allocation based on current market conditions. I disagree with Curt's analysis. If the dollar continues to depreciate against foreign currencies the portion of our portfolio in TIPs and global equities should offset losses in domestic stocks (many of which are global bluechip companies themselves) and dollar denominated fixed income securities.

But, I could be all wrong. From 1929-1954 the market was essentially flat, with rallys and dips along the way. But that was the US market. I'm hopeful that the global market will continue to grow in value.

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