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« Why Even the Best Investors Can't Pick Winning Actively Managed Funds Consistently | Main | Help a Reader: Bonds in a 401k »

June 02, 2009


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You should make a post on what your own plans are for retirement. You don't seem the type to live in a golf resort and rounds of golf every day.

Do you plan on working in some type of charity, in the likes of Bill Gates?

Rick --

That's a good suggestion. I'll add it to my list of post ideas.

I'll be retiring in 11 years!

Assuming you are a conventional buy and hold investor your expected return from a diversified portfolio is inversely correlated to the valuations at the beginning of the holding period. In other words, the lower stocks go during this market decline the higher your mathematical expectation looking out over the next 10-15 years. Most credible analysts would put expected returns in the high single digits up to about 10% as of this writing based on valuations and assuming a return to normal profit margins as opposed to the inflated profit margins of the years prior to 2007. If you want to raise your expectation up to the low-teens then you're going to want to begin your holding period at levels below roughly 600 on the S&P.

Concepts like these are essential for properly estimating how much is enough to retire. Hope it helps...

I expect I will never be able to retire and will have to work until I drop dead.

Since it is statistically unlikely I will be able to work until I drop dead, I expect destitution in my future.


For comparison purposes, would you mind sharing your retirement number in US dollars?



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