Signs of a Bad Economy

I don't know about you, but we're seeing more and more signs of a tough economy at work. A few examples of what's recently happened:

• A friend who owned a local business had to declare bankruptcy and has now been looking for a "regular job" for several months.
• We ran into a neighbor at a church event (their church, not ours) and found out he had been unemployed for several months.
• Talked to another neighbor at a party and found out her husband was let go a few months ago.
• Several friends of friends who are looking for jobs.
• Small thefts (mostly stuff taken from unlocked cars and open garages) have been popping up in our neighborhood. The most recent was a purse taken out of a car in a driveway while the lady just "stopped in for a minute" to say hi.
• Gun-point robbery at a dollar store a couple miles from our house.
• Gun-point robbery at a 7-11 a couple miles from our house.

This stuff never seemed to happen much a few years ago -- at least not with the consistency it's happening these days. It's really bad out there for many people.

As for good news, at least this guy found a new job (although it's on the other side of the country from where he just moved.)

The poor economy has had very little impact on me directly, but seems to be hitting many around me. Anyone else out there seeing signs of a tough economy personally or with friends or family?

Comments

[Crystal]

My best friend's husband lost his IT job last year and it took 6 months to find another one. My salary has been frozen for a year...but I work for a company that just needed any excuse.

Other than that, the economy in Houston hasn't seemed as bad as other places.

[Hacker]

Sounds like you need to move to a better neighborhood!

[D]

I've been insulated from the layoffs thank god. IT, right now, is surviving in the DC metro area thanks to the government. I'm also more protected since I have a "certification" that is in high demand. I see a lot of others who have been laid off really struggling to find a job though. There seems to be so many people to compete with.

The only good news I've seen is that employment is down from its high. Too bad that isn't translating too well to the average person just yet.

[Susan]

I'm a state government worker in Austin, TX and so far so good, but knock on wood and keep my fingers crossed, I haven't heard of a layoff, yet.

[indio]

The only person I know out of work is my sister, who has been unemployed for 2 1/2 years. I don't think she was particularly motivated to find a job right away because she got 6 months severance and was going to unemployment benefits too. She's been on a few interviews but she's reluctant to take the job unless the company is really stable. Her benefits have been extended a few times and she's worried that she will lose benefits if she takes a new job that only last 8 weeks. If she loses the new job, she's no longer eligible for unemployment. This was the story I got when I encouraged to her to find a job around the holidays. I think her benefits are about to run out so now she's really looking again. The company I work at did layoffs last Feb but seems to have stabilized and had a modest recovery so there may not be more layoffs.

[billyjobob]

I work in health care. Last year they wanted everyone to take off 5 hours per pay period to save the company some money, since our patient load was down. I kindly offered to take off 16 hour per pay period... just to help the company even more ;) They declined my offer. I guess we weren't really hurting that much, or the company wasn't looking to save that much money.

[Ourtakeonfreedom.wordpress.com]

I'm in the odd position of having just resigned from my job to spend a few years traveling with my wife (who resigned from her job a few months ago). While I haven't seen the bad economy impacting my friends across the board, I certainly know people who are overqualified for jobs that they haven't been able to land.

[Rich Avery]

We had over 30 burglaries in our neighborhood over the holidays. A neighbor's house was hit, but not ours (gratefully).I know of some people who have been out of work for over a year.

And the factory my dad worked at for 25 years shut down about a year ago. He was within a couple of years of retirement, so he retired, but the income he receives now isn't what it would have been had he still been able to work a few more years. The city he lived in was hit hard with job losses. Even the local Sears closed.

[Jclimber]

Where have you been FMF? All of 2009 was a crappy year for hi-tech, tons of layoffs in the Austin area. I still know many people that are looking for jobs (some have given up on hi-tech). I think we've turned the corner but won't really know until companies start hiring again and not just overseas.

[FMF]

Jclimber --

Guess I've been in the same place some of the other commenters have been (not seeing much personally), until lately.

[Rod Ferguson]

I've been planning for the downturn for years now, so I'm fine; I didn't party hearty during the boom, so the bust hangover isn't hitting me as hard (a reference to the video you posted, FMF). I see the effects on people around me, however. Although, I've talked the ears off most of the folks I know about finance and economics over the last 6-8 years, so many began adopting sound principles before the bust, so even then - they aren't suffering as badly as most.

[DJ Wetzel]

I work in the financial aid office at a large university. We have seen literally hundreds of students come in seeing if there is more money available because one or both of their parents are unemployed. We are also issuing a lot (millions) more in Federal need based grant aid because student's family incomes are drastically reduced versus last year.

[Tyler]

-2nd wave of mortgage defaults/resets is only beginning… and its far larger than the subprime issues. Since the beginning of the subprime wave- lending standards have increased, down payment requirements have increased, unemployment has increased, home values are down, the 10 year bond sale was horrible today so rates might be on the up… good luck refinancing.
-Over 6mm people have been out of work for more than 27 months- an all time high (data started in 1948)
-Over 1mm have completely stopped looking for work.
-Detroit unemployment exceeds 50% and other regions are clearly in deep trouble.
-Govt social nets are running out of money and will need to be funded- fdic, state unemployment funds, etc. 25 state unemployment funds are broke.
-Bankruptcies are up 32% yoy to 1.4mm
-Dollar’s status as a reserve currency are in question (although Fed Fisher said today there is no substation for the dollar at this time)
-Pensions and retirement plans are severely underfunded just as the demographic shift begins. Social Security started paying out more than it takes in.
-Sovereign debt issues are only beginning. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Iceland. Moody’s throws into question the AAA status of US debt and UK debt. -The Fed purchased all mortgage and 80% of treasury debt in 2009.
-China starting to ‘shimmy’
-M3/money supply is starting to downtick (deflationary) in the face of massive fed balance sheet increases/monetary easing.
-The majority of G20 nations are in major fiscal trouble
-Demographic trends in the G20 are horrible
-75% of US debt will need to be refinanced in the next 4-5 years
-Equity markets don’t seem healthy right now. Even technical indicators are turning bearish.
-Equity funds are seeing outflows
-Zillow Chief Economist is seeing home prices start to roll over again.
-Fed is beginning to pull out of its stimulus activities

Nothing to see here folks!

[KittyBoarder]

My IT department laid off 20% in late 2008. But it's pretty stable now and we are hiring again..
But a couple of my friends who lost jobs back in 2008 are still unemployeed and it only gets tougher from here..
None of the homes on our block is selling..
My husband's friend had to cut their home price by 20%, paying a huge amount of seller concession and throw in brand name furniture in order to sell..

[VT]

My pay was cut last year ... on top of the 2 weeks of unpaid "vacation" mandated by the company ... though at least I survived the 3 rounds of layoffs. This year, who knows? I figure I'm OK through March ... just taking it quarter by quarter.

Most of the co-workers who were laid off have jobs now ... unfortunately, they're all temporary or contract gigs.

On the good side, my SIL, who'd been working a contract job, got offered a full-time job by that company.

[David]

I'm fortunate enough to have a job with the IRS, and it doesn't like my job will be going away soon...however, I have several friends who have been laid off or are facing furloughs/reduced hours at work...

[Terry]

I rent a room in a house with six other people and nobody has a job.

[Old Limey]

My hiking group had a nice 13 mile hike through the Redwoods last Monday and ended up on the California coast at Santa Cruz. We had some time to wait before our bus arrived for the ride home so we walked to a place that serves a really nice cup of coffee in a big china cup - we don't like styrofoam or paper. On the way we passed by a homeless shelter. Soon we started seeing homeless people all over the place. Some were still in their sleeping bags at 2pm, others were just sitting around chatting, and some were in very dilapitated vans and old RVs that looked like they were crammed full of their life possessions. I don't believe they cause any trouble, they just hang around until it's mealtime at the homeless shelter. There was a broad cross section of the population by age, gender, and ethnicity and they are attracted to this area also because, being by the Pacific ocean, it almost never drops below freezing and the police don't hassle them. They have had an awful lot of rain however over the last few weeks. It's very sad to see a lot of people that are forced into living this way. I just wonder what will happen when the government finally decides to not keep extending unemployment benefits, as is a certainty - things could get ugly for a lot more people but employment benefits were never intended to become a permanent income. There are also millions of people living from paycheck to paycheck that could also add to the homeless numbers.
This isn't the America that I have lived in since 1958 and I worry about its future and the future of our grandchildren.

[MasterPo]

This economy is faaaaaaaaaar from stabalizing - muchless recovering!!

The perverbial second shoe has yet to drop. And drop it will. MasterPo won't hazard a guess when but not tomorrow (probably) yet now 20 years from now either!

A close friend was layed off December 1st after being at his job 12 years.

MasterPo's home business of 11 years is deep in the red for the first time. 50/50 if it will last the year. :-(

[MasterPo]

The pols love to talk about "job creation" but almost always those are LOW paying 'work' jobs and not career jobs.

Doesn't the out of work lawyer or CPA or network engineer deserve a shot at a new job too in his/her field??

A job is NOT a job (been there, done that).

[Tyler]

Today-"Borrowers in the U.S. and Europe sold $4.71 billion of high-grade securities this week, the least this year and about 90 percent less than the average $52.9 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

90% drops in volume are not a good thing

[Barbara]

I was laid off as a bank manager in April of last year. I started another job (in insurance sales) in August but life insurance sales are DOWN--and I work for a major insurer. Since I'm on commission, I don't know if I'm going to be able to make this work, but I also don't know if I can get another job. I have a great resume with good experience and skills but it doesn't seem to matter these days. Stress plays a major part in my life right now...

[bobsmith111]

Thanks alot Obama, although Obama probably still blames Bush.

[Kathy]

My company laid off for the first time ever (in business over 75 years). My department went from over 70 to 13. My husband lost his job last year (healthcare) and there is nothing on the horizon. Besides all my coworkers we have many many friends who have lost their jobs and some still losing. Add to that the children of our friends who are graduating college with no jobs. Not seeing a recovery.

[MasterPo]

How's that hope and change working for you?

[Mike Hunt]

FMF,

You've gotta get out of Michigan- the unemployment is very high there and the break-ins may be an ominous sign of things to come...

Here in SE Asia it's the opposite problem- too many jobs picking up, I'm having a real problem retaining talented people as there are big pay jumps to be found in many companies around where we are. I wonder how long it lasts like this.

-Mike

[Dave]

My job seems good until the end of March. Everyone claims that there's a new contract in the works to extend past that. We'll see. (DC area contractor).

Was in the car with my brother the other day, his neighbor calls, just go laid off. My brother's been off 7 months, lets him know how to do the unemployment thing online. Brother's job search extends to China, Iraq, etc, still nothing... If he does get something in the USA that requires him to move, he'll have to walk away from the house. Brother is in SE lower Michigan. Underwater hardly covers it.

[Terry]

MasterPo -

A lot of people with grievances came to critical mass in 2008 and took it out on Republicans.

This year we get to take it out on Democrats.

[CJ]

You mean that well-thought 'stimulus plan' didn't work?!?!? Shocking...

[Arlene]

The person who posted the comment about your needing to move to a better neighborhood should open their eyes and have more compassion. I live in suburban North Jersey, and it reminds me very much of what my mother used to say about the Great Depression: The most pathetic folks were those who still had good jobs and closed eyes. There is a lot of quiet, desperate suffering going on out there. Our church's food kitchen useage is off the charts. Our local animal shelter is being inundated by tearful people who can no longer afford to feed and take care of their animals. And from counseling people, let me tell you: THERE ARE FEW TO NO JOBS OUT THERE THAT PAY A LIVNG WAGE. I would estimate that one-third of our neighborhood, and about one-quarter of our church has been personally affected. My husband and I are retired, but I simply cannot believe your people who are still simply LUCKY enough to still have your job, but truly do not see at all. This tragically was a situation coming on for a long time. When I was working in the 80's during the Reagan era, I would come home from work and tell my husband, "They are dismantling America's manufacturing base and no one is paying attention." My job unfortunately gave me a front-row seat, but of course no power. Tragically, it has all come home to roost, and I don't know how anything can be done now by anybody. In our area, there are tons of old factory buildings converted into condos or U-store-it places. But no jobs.

[Larry]

I was laid off at GMAC a product of thier collections dept which they outsourced all of our depts and divisions overseas to the Phillipines for how much an hour so that the CEO's can pocket the extra money they saved for thier lear jets and posh lifestyle. Nice!

[Tyler]

Yes Larry I'm sure it being a solid business decision had nothing to do with it. I'm sorry you lost your job. Economic destruction is very hard on people. Personally, I would have liked to see everyone at GMAC lose their jobs, but rational actors in the govt decided to save the poorly run and operated company.